Thursday, February 1, 2024
Acharya Pramod: पीएम मोदी ने स्वीकारा कांग्रेस नेता का न्योता, श्री कल्कि धाम के शिलान्यास समारोह होंगे शामिल
सनातन के मुद्दे पर अपनी ही पार्टी कांग्रेस को खरी-खरी सुनाने वाले आचार्य प्रमोद कृष्णम ने गुरुवार को नई दिल्ली में प्रधानमंत्री नरेंद्र मोदी से मुलाकात की
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Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
New top story on Hacker News: A confusing probability question: Red and green balls in an urn
A confusing probability question: Red and green balls in an urn
15 by eigenvalue | 20 comments on Hacker News.
A Twitter post made the rounds yesterday asking the following question in the form of a poll ( https://twitter.com/littmath/status/1751648838501224790 ): Daniel Litt @littmath You are given an urn containing 100 balls; n of them are red, and 100-n are green, where n is chosen uniformly at random in [0, 100]. You take a random ball out of the urn—it’s red—and discard it. The next ball you pick (out of the 99 remaining) is: More likely to be red 22.6% More likely to be green 37.1% Equally likely 20.9% Don’t know/see results 19.5% I thought it was interesting (but not surprising) that so many people got this wrong. Basically, Bayesian thinking is really foreign to people. It's essentially similar to the famous Monty Hall problem, where the first bit of information tells you something about the world. In any case, I thought it might be illuminating to give a complete demonstration, using both exact calculations AND simulation, of the "wrong" and "right" approach, which you can see at the Colab link above.
15 by eigenvalue | 20 comments on Hacker News.
A Twitter post made the rounds yesterday asking the following question in the form of a poll ( https://twitter.com/littmath/status/1751648838501224790 ): Daniel Litt @littmath You are given an urn containing 100 balls; n of them are red, and 100-n are green, where n is chosen uniformly at random in [0, 100]. You take a random ball out of the urn—it’s red—and discard it. The next ball you pick (out of the 99 remaining) is: More likely to be red 22.6% More likely to be green 37.1% Equally likely 20.9% Don’t know/see results 19.5% I thought it was interesting (but not surprising) that so many people got this wrong. Basically, Bayesian thinking is really foreign to people. It's essentially similar to the famous Monty Hall problem, where the first bit of information tells you something about the world. In any case, I thought it might be illuminating to give a complete demonstration, using both exact calculations AND simulation, of the "wrong" and "right" approach, which you can see at the Colab link above.
Monday, January 29, 2024
Weather: उत्तर भारत में भीषण सर्दी के बीच खिली धूप; पंजाब-हरियाणा से लेकर बिहार तक तीन दिन कोहरे का यलो अलर्ट
पिछले कुछ समय से सर्दी का सितम झेल रहे पंजाब और हरियाणा में भी पारा सामान्य के करीब पहुंच गया है। दोनों राज्यों की संयुक्त राजधानी चंडीगढ़ में सोमवार सुबह न्यूनतम तापमान 7.4 डिग्री सेल्सियस दर्ज किया गया।
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